WHAT 
                        a blast! In Manila on a literary excursion last 
                        week (15-20 Jan 2001), I witnessed ''People Power 
                      2'' from the beginning to its startling conclusion.  
                      
                      
                        
                           
                            Manila 
                                in ''crisis'' remained a city of stark contrasts  | 
                           
                        
                       
                      The 
                      evening we arrived, the Estrada impeachment had Manila glued 
                    to the TV and radio. 
                    The 
                      proceedings were tied in technicalities over key bank documents. 
                    Over 
                      dinner, our hosts were buzzed by frantic mobile-phone messages. 
                      The Senate had voted 11-10 against admitting the evidence. 
                    It 
                      implied that any hope of a legal ousting of the President 
                      would be thwarted by his allies in the Senate, who had now 
                      shown their hand in moving towards an early acquittal.  
                    That 
                      night, the prosecution team resigned. While we slept, Manila 
                      - summoned by cellphone SMS - was taking to the streets. 
                      A carefully orchestrated movement was in the works. 
                    The 
                      next day, thousands had gathered at the historic Edsa shrine, 
                      site of the 1986 ''People Power'' uprising that had ousted 
                      Ferdinand Marcos. 
                    Classes 
                      were cancelled at most colleges to let students and staff 
                      join in the rally. On campus, black ribbons and ''No class 
                      before Erap resigns'' posters were everywhere. 
                    At 
                      a book launch held at Cardinal Sin's palace, guests-of-honour 
                      Cory Aquino and the Cardinal were conspicuously absent. 
                      They were speaking to the 300,000-strong rally crowd. The 
                      conscious evocation of 1986's People Power was unmistakable. 
                    Manila 
                      in ''crisis'' remained a city of stark contrasts. 
                    Two 
                      nights before the President fell, Miss Saigon played to 
                      a full house of city elites. And while the rich live in 
                      estates with armed guards, the streets spill over with slum 
                      children and uncleared piles of rubbish.  
                    Joseph 
                      Estrada himself embodies this juxtaposition. 
                    Shooed 
                      into office on his mass appeal as a film actor playing underdog 
                      roles, he was distrusted from the start by the business 
                      elite and intelligentsia, who were among the known faces 
                      in the rallying crowd.  
                    Accusations 
                      of graft gave his opponents a perfect excuse to stage an 
                      ousting. Yet ''Erap'' retained his popularity among the 
                      poor despite the millions he is said to have absconded. 
                    The 
                      so-called ''popular'' uprising was more likely an affair 
                      of Manila's urban population, rather than the provinces 
                      at large. 
                    In 
                      Manila, top writers in the opposition camp control the media 
                      and write speeches for politicans. 
                    By 
                      Friday, the ''Edsa 2001'' rally had become a massive street 
                      party, hundreds of thousands strong and growing. To the 
                      sound of rock music and chants of ''Erap resign'', the rally 
                      teemed with clergy, political groups, families and young 
                      people dancing. The atmosphere was festive, buoyant. 
                    ''We 
                      don't overthrow bad leaders, we party them out,'' said protestor 
                      Alma Anonas, a journalist and veteran of the 1986 Edsa uprising. 
                    
                      
                        
                           
                            The 
                                region has not settled down to the hard work of 
                                rebuilding confidence and economic stability  | 
                           
                        
                       
                      Yet 
                      despite the legendary bloodlessness of ''People Power'', 
                    the possibility of violence was present. 
                    Estrada 
                      surrounded himself with his own demonstrators, some said 
                      to have been paid 150 pesos each to rally on his behalf. 
                    These 
                      groups included street gangs who had thrown rocks and broken 
                      windows in downtown Makati. 
                    There 
                      was fear that the two sides could meet and clash. 
                    Still, 
                      it was clear that the military's sudden defection on Friday 
                      was the real clincher. 
                    Estrada 
                      had been rendered toothless.  
                    By 
                      their own admission, the military chiefs had been plotting 
                      a coup behind the scenes. 
                    Joining 
                      the anti-Erap rally gave them the public legitimacy of ''enforcing'' 
                      the people's will. But just outside Manila, attack helicopters 
                      and tanks had quietly assembled. 
                    Before 
                      the military's critical move, there was concern that Estrada 
                      could hold out till the May elections and obtain political 
                      reinforcements by poll-rigging, said our host Alfred Yuson, 
                      a writer and journalist in Arroyo's camp. 
                    Estrada 
                      supporters could still attempt a comeback later in the year, 
                      he said. 
                    Some 
                      pundits quote astrology when railing against Erap. ''The 
                      Year of the Snake is lucky for Estrada,'' said one insider, 
                      ''so he must be out before the Lunar New Year or he could 
                      escape''. 
                    By 
                      the time we flew out of Manila, Gloria Arroyo had been installed 
                      as the new President. 
                    To 
                      survive, she will have to marshall what support she enjoys 
                      among the Manila elite.  
                    Already, 
                      she has earned a reputation in her camp for a quick temper. 
                    Starker 
                      still, is the extent of the challenges ahead - the income 
                      divide, poor economic performance, an ascendant and politically 
                      active military. 
                    Also, 
                      simmering racial tensions - resentment against a Chinese-dominated 
                      business elite and Muslim separatists in the wings. 
                    Unlike 
                      its illustrious predecessor, ''Edsa 2001'' may be nothing 
                      more than a well-staged coup, rather than People Power re-enacted. 
                    It 
                      is part of a series of corrections and political reshufflings 
                      across the region since the economic crisis: as incumbent 
                      governments from Thailand to Indonesia and Malaysia lose 
                      their grip on power acquired in a lost era of growth. 
                    Singaporeans 
                      can observe the turmoil with relative serenity.  
                    But 
                      the political disquiet of our Asean neighbours signals that 
                      the region has not settled down to the hard work of rebuilding 
                      confidence and economic stability. 
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